Recent
developments in the presidential race only underscore what has become
more and more clear for the last couple months.
Despite early indications, it seems that the Republican party are not
going to win enough seats to take back control of the senate. In fact, they may end up in a situation where
they have the exact same number of seats they do now.
Now,
it is clear the Republicans are going to pick up Missouri and Nebraska. Those two seats are lost causes. Conversely, the Democrats I believe will pick
up Massachusetts. An independent will likely
win the currently Republican held seat in Maine but will caucus with the
Democrats on procedural votes etc. so we can count that as a Democratic
vote. So we are back to the same breakdown
of Senators we have now 51+47+2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats.
The
Republicans had pinned some of their hopes on North Dakota but Hedi Heitkamp
former attorney general is known to the
state and very hard to demonize and now she has taken the a slight lead in
holding this seat for the Democrats.
Ditto for Martin Heinrich in New Mexico whose lead is only growing.
The
races in Florida and Virginia still remain tight but the trend now in both
races seems to be an ever so slight lead opening up for the Democratic
candidates (these are currently both Democrat held seats).
The
only races I see at this point in time as true toss-ups are Montana and
Wisconsin and even if the Republicans won both (which I think is unlikely) the
senate would be 49+49+2 which basically means 51-49 as the two independents
would be caucusing with the Democrats.
In
addition, Tea Party whacko Richard Mourdock’s win in the Republican primary in
Indiana and Arizona’s various controversies (an open seat) may make both of
these potential targets for the Democrats.
Could they actually increase their majority? We will see.
Granted,
this is all subject to change although I think Paul Ryan’s record with elderly
voters, his plans for Medicare and Social Security, in addition to hurting Romney
and Ryan’s chances in states with large numbers of elderly voters such as
Florida might also negatively affect Republican senate candidates in those
states as well.
One
state where the Republicans thought they might have a chance and where they
dumped lots of money is Ohio. Incumbent
1st term Democratic senator Sherrod Brown has a reasonable
progressive voting record, certainly much more than you would expect from
someone who represents Ohio which on paper is a swing state but is more like a second
tier Republican state. However, Brown is
unafraid to talk about his record and his beliefs and in a state with a large number
of blue collar workers especially hard hit by the endless recession that is
respected. No matter what the
Republicans have thrown at him, Brown has maintained a steady lead in polls
against his challenger so far.
Contrast
that with the most endangered Democratic incumbent senator this cycle Claire McCaskill
elected the same year as Brown. Granted,
Missouri is even more conservative than Ohio but McCaskill has voted with one
finger in the wind with no clear cut ideology but her own re-election. She is a supporter of wars and of Wall
Street. She has spent much of this
election campaign so far running away from her record (in particular her vote for Obamacare) and
from President Obama. She is the Blanche
Lambert Lincoln of 2012.
In
addition, McCaskill ran attack ads while the Republicans were having their primary
against Todd Akin, the winner. Why she
did this is either because she wanted Akin to be her competitor or she didn’t
want him to be her competitor-two different theories. Anyway, Akin, a career politician, a congressman
for more than a decade, is a far tougher opponent than the other two in the primary-
Sarah Steelman, a Sarah Palin wannabe or John Brunner a multi-millionaire who has
never held elected office. This is/was a
baffling strategy.
McCaskill
could end up being the only incumbent Democratic senator to lose. That should be a lesson.. People respect
candidates who state clearly what they are about and don’t try to fudge or runaway
from their records even if they don’t necessarily agree with the candidates’ positions.
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